Egypt hosts COP27. What are the expectations?

As the host country of the 2022 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP27) from November 6-18, Egypt has a huge role to play during its presidency of the event, as all eyes will be on how the country can lead by example. To put things in perspective, with 1.3% of the world’s population, Egypt represents only 0.6% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and ranks twenty-eighth on the global polluter list. This number appears to be relatively low from a global perspective. At the regional level, however, Egypt contributes 31 percent of North Africa’s global GHG emissions and 13 percent overall GHG emissions from the entire African continent. Thus, Egypt has a great responsibility to establish a path towards a green energy transition.

This year, the Egyptian Presidency of the COP is very important as a middle-income country in Africa and the Middle East that hosts this event. Egypt might therefore be in a position to influence the agenda items and put more emphasis on Africa’s growing needs for adaptation and mitigation finance.

The agenda for COP27 includes four main points for discussion: climate finance, adaptation, loss and damage, and increased ambition. With regard to climate finance, there is a need to ensure that developed countries meet their commitment to developing countries with regard to the funding pledge of 100 billion dollars per year, as promised in COP15 in Copenhagen. Since the creation of the Paris climate agreements in 2015, there was not a single year when the $100 billion the funding target per year has been reached. The closest recorded record to this goal was in 2021, where $80 billion were collected from public and private sources.

There is a serious need to achieve this goal as climate impacts are causing global suffering on a creeping scale. In addition to the $100 billion target, there is also a need to agree on a much larger post-2025 climate finance deal, in addition to putting in place adequate rules to enforce this commitment.

In terms of adaptation, COP27 is considered an “African COP” because it is taking place on one of the continents most affected by climate change. Therefore, stakeholders expect to see stronger political will to increase global funding for adaptation policies. Currently, 80 percent of the overall climate finance portfolio is dedicated to mitigation, while only 20 percent move on to adaptation. This is often because mitigation projects are bankable projects with decent return on investment potential, such as solar and wind power projects.

However, adaptation projects are less investable in nature, as they aim to help local communities adapt to the consequences of climate change. These projects are often unbankable and less attractive to financiers. In addition, adaptation projects are often needed by the most vulnerable communities, which often lack the capacity to develop sophisticated climate finance proposals that can garner support from financial institutions, agencies or organizations. governments. So, this year, there is a direct need to secure assistance for one of the most vulnerable continents and help them adapt to climate change in a fair and equitable way.

Third, loss and damage became a contentious topic that was discussed for several years, without consensus on an enforceable work plan. Some countries will suffer complete loss and irreversible damage from climate change, whether it is a small island state that will be completely flooded due to rising sea levels; or the complete bleaching of coral reefs in some seas; or, the extinction of particular flora and fauna from ecosystems due to global warming. The subject can be divided into economic losses which include damage to resources and goods and services, such as agriculture, infrastructure, tourism, etc., and non-economic losses which include loss of family members, loss of culture and ways life, or migration from home.

Loss and damage differs from mitigation and adaptation in that they address how to help people after experiencing climate-related impacts, while mitigation aims to prevent and reverse them. adaptation to minimize them. The Paris Agreement was only intended to address loss and damage with technical assistance, but it explicitly did not include any liability or compensation on the part of developed countries. There have been several attempts to establish a loss and damage financing mechanism, but they have repeatedly failed.

The problem also lies in establishing criteria indicating who has priority and why. Do entire populations that need to be relocated (due to their homes on a flooded island) take precedence over crops – which feed the poor – which can become instinctive? Not only is establishing criteria and priorities a daunting task, but the mere request for additional funding from the international community for “loss and damage” has been completely rebuffed in previous rounds of negotiations by the United States and the European Union. Thus, the establishment of a financing facility will be at the heart of COP27.

Finally, the fourth item on the agenda increases ambition. This means consolidating the simultaneous political commitments of different stakeholders and the wider global community to the climate cause. The February report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said we needed to stay below a 1.5°C temperature rise to avoid climate catastrophe, and we were left with only a decade before the carbon budget is fully exhausted. The report also mentions that, by 2030, emission levels would have to be halved to achieve this goal. In other words, the international community has less than ten years to act.

Based on 2021 Glasgow Climate PactI fall Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)) the targets promised for the Paris agreement were implemented, the international community would still be heading for a rise of 2.4°C, with a worst-case scenario of 2.8°C – if all commitments are not met held – and a best-case scenario of 1.8°C – if all new actions in Glasgow are implemented. It’s still above the 1.5°C mark. Therefore, the expectations in Sharm el-Sheikh are for all countries to increase their ambitions and make new commitments to reduce their emissions and stay below the 1.5°C mark.

As new study reveals, Egypt and the Middle East are warming faster than the rest of the world, with a projected 5°C increase in warming by the end of the century. There are also a lot at stake in Sharm el-Sheikh, as the war in Ukraine affects the prices and availability of food and energy. Egypt has an important role to play in Sharm el-Sheikh to promote these four key agenda items highlighted above. Egypt should also continue to express the demands and expectations of the countries of the South, in particular those of its direct African neighbours.

Lama El Hatow is a non-resident member of the Atlantic Council’s empowerME initiative. Lama has fifteen years of professional experience in the field of the environment, eleven of which as an environmental and social specialist at the International Finance Corporation.

Further reading

Image: In this photo, the silhouette of a woman is holding a smartphone with the COP27 logo of the 2022 United Nations Climate Change Conference in the background. The COP27 event of the United Nations Climate Change Conference 2022 will take place from November 7 to 18, 2022, in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt. (Photo by Rafael Henrique/SOPA Images/Sipa USA)